Obama needs to be a "Tough Liberal"....So who gets thrown under the bus?

America likes Democrats when they appear to be so called "tough liberals" and favors Republicans when they fit the mold of "compassionate conservatives." The backroom masterminds of our nation's two party constipation machine know this quite well and it is why it is only a matter of time before we start seeing representations of Barack Obama: Tough Liberal. His handlers have allowed Obama to drop some hints as to where this new Dirty Harry version of Barack may show up. These hints seem centered on two areas: foreign policy and organized labor.

Now, make no mistakes "Tough Obama" will need to be tough enough for the moderates in Youngstown to take notice, but not so tough as to send his core base scurrying for cover or worse into revolt. I suspect we will continue to hear Obama temper his talk about troop withdrawal in Iraq with his Tom Petty "I Won't Back Down" to Iran mantra, but in the end, I think it will be organized labor who will take the brunt of Big Bad Obama. He has already shown his willingness to push a wee bit harder on the UAW and Detroit auto manufacturers than previous NAFTAcrats in his shoes, but picking on Big Auto these days is as easy as getting a 5 year old to eat ice cream. In the end, though, I think it will be the NEA and AFT who take the most hits when "Tough Obama" gets his axe moving this summer.

As a I noted, Tough Liberals need to hedge their bets. The auto industry and national education policy are great forums for this because they are home to some solid divides within the Democratic Party. These divides are Blue Collar Rust Belt Labor vs. College Educated Environmentalists on the auto front and Union Education vs. Democratic Reform Policy Wonks and Civil Rights Groups on the education side. The Environment is one of the hotter topics in this election and Obama needs to do some real fence mending with the Rust Belters who sided so fervently with Clinton in the primary. Obama may personally want to come down harder on the UAW and Big Auto but the "hot" nature of the topic may force his handlers to hold him in check. On the other hand, education is nowhere on the political radar. If you need to show the moderates you know how to punch, but you don't want to really beat up your friends, it is a good idea politically to look for a friend who is not in the spotlight and can truly take a punch. This should be news to the NEA and the AFT to put their collective mouthpieces in.

Obama is part of the elite college educated contingent of the NAFTAcrats. He has fans in anti-union groups like Democrats for Education Reform and many vocal D.C Based education reform policy wonks. Both of these groups are completely hyper focused on national urban education reform and view large scale implementation of charter schools and performance pay has the best mechanism to see this reform completed (while completely disregarding local control and the millions of Americans who choose not to live in New York, Washington D.C., Baltimore, etc.., but that is another story) Couple these factors with the many civil rights groups who continue to applaud NCLB and Obama's preference for urban community organization and you almost have a perfect storm of haymakers ready to unload on the NEA and the AFT.

Early July might be when we get our first taste of all of this when NEA holds its annual Representative Assembly. This year it will be in Washington, D.C. and they will most certainly be endorsing Obama for President. Whether the NEA chooses to put on its headgear now or later, we will have to wait and see.